Yes/No Pricing Explained: Why 30¢ Means 30%
4 min read
Cents are probabilities
Every binary market settles at $1 for the winning side and $0 for the losing side. So the fair price of a Yes share is exactly the probability of the event: 30% chance → 30¢.
Yes and No prices always add up to about $1. If Yes trades at 30¢, No trades near 70¢ — buying No at 70¢ pays $1 when the event does NOT happen.
Reading a payout
Divide $1 by the price to get your multiplier. 30¢ → 3.33× your stake. 80¢ → 1.25×. Longshots pay big precisely because they rarely hit.
What moves the price
News, polls, injuries, on-chain data — anything that changes the real probability. The chart on every Rolluck market shows the full price history, so you can see exactly how the odds reacted to past events.